SpaceX

On July 4, a widely-circulated post by @AYi_AInotes highlighted a line buried in SpaceX’s revised IPO filings: SpaceX is supplying Anthropic with $1.25 billion of compute every month, under a contract running through May 2029, with either side able to terminate on 90 days notice. The same window saw reports that Anthropic has locked in 1.4 GW of data-center capacity in Australia, with $15 billion in build-out cost. Read these three together and the story is not “Anthropic bought more compute.” It is that AI compute has quietly moved from being a cloud resource you rent by the token, to a piece of industrial infrastructure you buy on multi-year fixed contracts. In industrial-age language this is called a power purchase agreement (PPA). In the AI era it is still the same shape: a customer locks in capacity at a fixed price, the supplier locks in cash flow to build. I am calling this “compute as power plant,” and that is the thesis of this post. ...

The bigger story is not the headline. On June 4, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to bend its rules for SpaceX. SpaceX had asked for unusually swift entry into the S&P 500 on the strength of an “unprecedented market capitalization.” The answer was no: you are not yet profitable. Read in isolation, this is just a SpaceX IPO story. The interesting part is who got caught in the same net. By refusing to carve out an exception, S&P also closed the fast-track lane for OpenAI and Anthropic. There will be no six-month seasoning period, no profit waiver, no IWF shortcut for unprofitable AI mega-caps. The “use your size to skip the line” playbook is now off the table. ...